The 10-year health impact, economic impact, and return on investment of the South African molecular diagnostics programme for HIV, Tuberculosis and SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

To ensure there is adequate investment into diagnostics, an understanding of the magnitude of impact and return on investment is necessary. We therefore sought to understand the health and economic impacts of the molecular diagnostic programme in South Africa, to deepen the under-standing on the broad value of diagnostics and guide future healthcare investments. We calcu-lated the 10-year (where data were available) total cost and DALYs averted associated with molecular diagnosis of molecular TB testing (2013-2022), HIV viral load monitoring (2013-2022), early infant diagnosis of HIV infection (2013-2022), and SARS-CoV-2 testing (2020-2022). We then calculated the economic value associated with those health gains and subsequent return on investment. Since the inception of the molecular diagnostics programme in South Africa, 3,035,782 DALYs have been averted as a direct consequence of this pro-gramme. This has generated an estimated $20.5 billion in economic value due to these health gains. The return on investment varied by specific diagnostic test (19.0 for tuberculosis, 1.4 for HIV viral load testing, 64.8 for early infant diagnosis of HIV, and 2.5 for SARS-CoV-2), for an average of 9.9 for the entire molecular diagnostics programme between 2013 and 2022- or $9.9 of value for each $1 invested. The molecular diagnostics programme in South Africa gen-erated a significant amount of health gains and economic value associated with these health gains, and the return-on-investment rivals other high-impact public health interventions such as childhood vaccination. Consequently, the molecular diagnostics programme in South Africa is highly impactful, and will continue to be an excellent investment of South African public health expenditure.

The Risks and Benefits of Providing HIV Services during the COVID-19 Pandemic (preprint)

Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread disruptions including to health services. In the early response to the pandemic many countries restricted population movements and some health services were suspended or limited. In late 2020 and early 2021 some countries re-imposed restrictions. Health authorities need to balance the potential harms of additional SARS-CoV-2 transmission due to contacts associated with health services against the benefits of those services, including fewer new HIV infections and deaths. This paper examines these trade-offs for select HIV services. Methods We used four HIV simulation models (Goals, HIV Synthesis, Optima HIV and EMOD) to estimate the benefits of continuing HIV services in terms of fewer new HIV infections and deaths. We used three COVID-19 transmission models (Covasim, Cooper/Smith and a simple contact model) to estimate the additional deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 transmission among health workers and clients. We examined four HIV services: voluntary medical male circumcision, HIV diagnostic testing, viral load testing and programs to prevent mother-to-child transmission. We compared COVID-19 deaths in 2020 and 2021 with HIV deaths occurring now and over the next 50 years discounted to present value. The models were applied to countries with a range of HIV and COVID-19 epidemics. Results Maintaining these HIV services could lead to additional COVID-19 deaths of 0.002 to 0.15 per 10,000 clients. HIV-related deaths averted are estimated to be much larger, 19 - 146 discounted deaths per 10,000 clients. Discussion While there is some additional short-term risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission associated with providing HIV services, the risk of additional COVID-19 deaths is at least 100 times less than the HIV deaths averted by those services. Ministries of Health need to take into account many factors in deciding when and how to offer essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work shows that the benefits of continuing key HIV services are far larger than the risks of additional SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Design and implementation of the multi-arm, multi-stage Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 (TICO) platform master protocol: An Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines (ACTIV) initiative (preprint)

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is a public health emergency. Safe and effective therapies are urgently needed. Methods: Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 (TICO), is a global multi-arm, multi-stage (MAMS) platform master protocol, which facilitates the rapid evaluation of the safety and efficacy of candidate anti-viral therapeutic agents for adults hospitalized with COVID-19. The protocol design allows multiple therapeutic agents to be evaluated in an efficient and scientifically rigorous manner, with efficiencies delivered by the MAMS design, and began by studying neutralizing monoclonal antibodies. TICO employs an agile and robust approach to futility and safety evaluation at 300 patients enrolled (Stage 1), with subsequent expansion to full sample size and an expanded target population (Stage 2) if the agent shows an acceptable safety profile and evidence of efficacy. Two ordinal outcomes applied early (Day 5) determine the efficacy signals of the investigational agents(s) and progression to Stage 2. These ordinal outcomes assess both respiratory and other organ failure events, recognizing the broad range of COVID-19 morbidity. In Stage 2, overall efficacy is assessed using the primary outcome of time to sustained recovery, assessed over 90 days. This approach to early futility assessment using an early intermediate outcome and a primary endpoint out to 90 days allows the study team to make rapid decisions on safety and potential efficacy of novel agents while ultimately focusing on patient-centered, longer-term outcomes. The implementation of TICO across a global network allows for continued enrollment despite variations in geographic epidemiology. Study Status: The TICO master protocol moved from conception to first patient enrolled in approximately 9 weeks, a testament to the expedited regulatory and ethics review, coupled with flexible and responsive study operations. The first agent to be tested using this protocol, LY-CoV-555, enrolled N=326 participants before undergoing Stage 1 futility and safety assessment. Two additional agents will enter the study in November 2020, with other agents planned. Conclusion: The TICO MAMS platform trial has been implemented efficiently across a global network of sites and several trial networks. It will generate results rapidly for multiple novel neutralizing monoclonal antibodies and other therapeutics agents.